boethius wrote:Even at 5%/yr improvement, you'll improve 25x in 65 years.
Given that about 75% of the energy in a gallon of gasoline is unusable in an ICE, you really only need a 6-7 fold improvement in battery technology, not 25x.
So 40 years instead of 65 years.
5% per year? That's ALL? Such a deal...perhaps those conspiracy theorists were right all along.
Show me Moore's law has anything to do with in batteries and I'll show you cooked data (and other cooked things behind them).
After all, if Moore's law applied to propellers, light bulbs, ICE's, etc., we'd be home free, after all, right? Wait, that can't be right...
Moore's "law" is descriptive, not predictive, of a process with many modes of incremental change. Battery technology today does not resemble this definition. It is a field marked by a few hard-won breakthroughs and a lot of blathering fairy dust, like any healthy area of important scientific and engineering development.